The red wave that Republicans try to talk into reality isn’t happening in key Senate races.
Polls Show No Red Wave For Republicans Yet
Simon Rosenberg recently tweeted:
Latest Senate polls, @FiveThirtyEight:
PA Fetterman 46-37 Oz
NC Beasley 44-40 Budd
GA Warnock 47-47 Walker
CO Bennett +13
UT Lee 41-37 McMullin
OH Ryan 44-41 Vance
WA Murray 51-40 Smiley
NV Cortez Masto 48-27 Laxalt
No red wave to be found here.
— Simon Rosenberg (@SimonWDC) June 16, 2022
Blue Collar Democratic Senate Candidates Are Faring Well In Pennsylvania And Ohio
If Democrats win Pennsylvania, their odds of keeping the Senate move into the likely column. We’ve discussed Pennsylvania elsewhere, but the Keystone State is the one place where Trump’s meddling and terrible endorsements could cost Republicans a chance at the Senate majority. Republicans are running a heavily disliked Mehmet Oz against a popular Lt. Governor in John Fetterman, who has come out of the gates with a strong message and has jumped out to a 9-point lead.
J.D. Vance is going to struggle in Ohio, as another Trump endorsement who won a crowded primary but isn’t that popular with voters. Rep. Ryan is a blue-collar working-class populist and like Fetterman, the sort of Democrat that has the potential to do very well in an anti-incumbent year.
North Carolina And The Lack Of A Red Wave
The open Senate seat in North Carolina is the one that puts the red wave idea into dispute.
According to the WRAL poll, Democrat Cheri Beasley is leading the Trump-endorsed Rep. Ted Budd, “While 44% of respondents said they’d support Beasley, 40% favored Budd, according to the poll. About one in seven likely voters were undecided. Of the 650 likely voters polled, 37% were affiliated with the Republican Party, while 34% said they were affiliated with the Democratic Party and 27% identified as independent.”
If Republicans can’t keep the open seat in North Carolina, where they have already dumped tens of millions of dollars into the race to support Budd, there will be no red wave and Democrats could expand their majority.
Even if Republicans win the House majority, a Democratic Senate would ensure that any potential attempts at a Biden impeachment went nowhere, and any additional Supreme Court vacancies would be filled before the 2024 election.
The country has record gas prices and inflation, but there is no evidence of the sort of red wave that will give Republicans control of both the House and Senate.
Awards and Professional Memberships
Member of the Society of Professional Journalists and The American Political Science Association